| Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-7-1 | 11-1-0 |
| Win rate | 72% | 92% |
| Pro fights | 29 | 12 |
| Country | Brazil | Australia |
| Pick A Fight odds | 1.84 | 1.93 |
| Win chance | 51% | 49% |
Renato Moicano is 21-7-1, winning 72% of 29 pro fights; Tom Nolan is 11-1, winning 92% of 12 pro fights.
Experience is a real gap here: Renato Moicano has 17 more pro fights than Tom Nolan.
Pick A Fight's record-based model calls this a near coin flip, leaning Renato Moicano (51% to win, odds 1.84). It only looks at records — opposition quality, styles, layoffs and weight cuts aren't in it, which is where upsets come from.